DETERMINANTS OF PRICE FLUCTUATION FOR MAIN BASIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN ACEH PROVINCE
Oleh: Hadi Arisyah Putra
Supervisor I: Dr. Chenny Seftarita, S.E., M.Si
Supervisor II: Dr. Suriani, S.E., M.Si
Aceh Province is one of the regions in Indonesia whose its main basic food commodities still depend on other regions that can cause price fluctuations. One of the steps to overcome this problem is to make accurate price forecasting and identify determinant factors so appropriate preventive measures and policies can be implemented. This study focuses on the analyzing forecasting price fluctuations and the influence of its determinants for main basic food commodities in Aceh Province. Forecasting estimation uses the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach and determinant estimation uses the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The data used in this study is monthly time-series data from January 2016 to December 2020. ARIMA results show that the price of rice and chicken eggs will fluctuate in 2021 but tend to be stable in 2022. Then the price of cooking oil is predicted continue to experience increase throughout 2021-2022. Results of ARDL estimation show that all selected independent variables, namely the price of raw materials, rainfall and the price index received by farmers have a significant effect on the price of main basic food commodities in the short run. However, in the long run, only the price of raw materials and the price index received by farmers were found to have a significant effect. With this finding, it is hoped that the Aceh Provincial Government can take proper policies regarding price predictions and determinant variables that have been proved to have a significant effect on main basic food commodities prices so in the future price fluctuations can be more controlled therefore able to increase the competitiveness of regional basic food commodities.
Keywords: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)