Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK

Judul : Determinan Net Capital Flow Indonesia di masa pandemi covid 19
Penulis : Annisa Salsabila
NIM : 1801101010111
Fakultas/jurusan : Ekonomi dan Bisnis/ Ekonomi Pembangunan
Pembimbing : Dr. Chenny Seftarita, S.E., M.Si.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh variabel BI rate, nilai tukar, inflasi, dan dummy covid 19 terhadap fluktuasi aliran modal Indonesia selama pandemi covid 19, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Menggunakan model penelitian Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian dalam jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa nilai nilai CointEq (-1) yaitu sebesar -0,336185 dengan probabilitasnya sebesar 0,0000  0,05 Artinya, secara parsial terjadi kointegrasi dalam model ARDL. Dalam jangka pendek, variabel hanya variabel nilai tukar berpengaruh positif dan signikan terhadap net capital. Dalam jangka panjang, variabel dummy covid 19 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap net capital flow Indonesia. Hasil uji bound testing menunjukkan nilai F-statistic sebesar 3,995462 > nilai 1(0) dan 1(1). Sehingga dapat disimpulkan nilai F-statistic lebih besar dari upper critical value pada level 5 persen. Artinya variabel penelitian ini mengalami kointegrasi dan terdapat hubungan dalam jangka panjang. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian tersebut, ada beberapa rekomendasi yang dapat diberikan kepada beberapa pihak seperti pemerintah agar dapat menjaga stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah, dan penguatan kebijakan untuk pencegahan penyebaran virus covid 19, dan bagi peneliti selanjutnya agar dapat melanjutkan kembali penelitian ini dengan menambah jumlah variabel.

Kata kunci: net capital flow, BI rate, nilai tukar, inflasi, dummy covid 19, ARDL.

ABSTRACK Title : Determinants of Indonesia’s net capital flow during pandemic covid Author : Annisa Salsabila ID : 1801101010111 Faculty/department : Economic and business/ Economics Development Supervisor : Dr. Chenny Seftarita, S.E., M.Si. This study aims to examine the effect of the BI rate, exchange rate, inflation, and covid 19 dummy variables on fluctuations in Indonesia's capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, both in the short and long term. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) research model. The results of the study in the short term show that the value of CointEq (-1) is -0.336185 with a probability of 0.0000 values of 1(0) and 1(1). It can be concluded that the F-statistic value is greater than the upper critical value at the 5 percent level. This means that all of these research variables are cointegrated and there is a long-term relationship. Based on the results of the study, there are several recommendations that can be given to several parties such as the government in order to maintain the stabilization of the rupiah exchange rate, and strengthen policies to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus, and future researchers in order to continue this research by increasing the number of variables. Keywords: net capital flow, Covid 19, Exchange rate, Inflation, BI rate, ARDL